As the parliamentary elections in Slovakia were closer and closer, many asked me what do I think could be the real winner. So here are some notes I and observations.
DAILY PAPERS POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENT
I have looked into which parties had advertisements in 3 daily newspaper during this last week before elections. Number in the paragraph below says the sum of pages of advertisements for the whole week.
Pravda:
Smer 3p, KSS 1p, Most 1p, KDH 1p, Unia 1/4p, SaS 1/4p
SME:
SDKU 2p, Most 2p, KDH 1p, SMK 1/2p
Plus 1 Den:
SDĽ 1+2/3p, SDKU 1p, Unia 1p, Most 1/2p, ND 1/3p, AZEN 1/3p
WHO WILL GOVERN THE COUNTRY
Here I must emphasize that predicting elections results has nothing to do with a profession of political scientist. I am writing this prediction as somebody who tries to read the soul of slovak nation and hidden signals that politicians are sending out.
The most probable new coalition is:
1) SMER+KDH+(SMK or Most)
2) SMER+SDKU
3) The Right Coalition (SDKU+SaS+KDH+Most+SMK(?))
Why do I think so: SMER will definitely get the most votes. Might be somewhere around 30% and it will be incredibly difficult if not impossible to leave SMER out from new government. However, HZDS will not pass the 5% threshold and thus it is neither possible for the current coalition to continue nor the SMER-SNS duo to have majority in the House. Whether we like it or not, the faith is metaphorically and literally in Gods hand – it will be christian democrats to decide which partners they want to be with. There are enormous pressures from lower party structures to go with SMER. And a rational person must ask: Why should KDH prefer 5-party coalition to 3-party one?
OLD TACTICS, NEW FACES
Imagine you are a leftist party. Logically, you cant attract a rightist voter, a fan of your enemy. So what you do is to finance a small right party that would steal about 2-3 per cent from your biggest competitor.
Rumours in slovak political spheres were going around that this is what SMER was doing to weaken SDKU – financing Slobodne Forum, later Unia. The latest reason to believe so is appearence of Miss Zuzana Panczova in SMER´s fan club on Thursday TV Markiza Debate. Miss Panczova is allegedly a girlfriend of Mr. Zahradnik, one of the leaders from Unia. A month ago she was handing out leaphlets and balloons with Unia logo. I got one from her too.
However, the strategy has backfired. New SDL, social-democratic clone allegedly financed by SDKU, has attracted lot of disappointed people and had 4,6 % in the latest poll. Getting a little bit more, let´s say 4,99, would be a great service to this country.
BIG QUESTIONS, BIG SURPRISE
What is a really big question and might become a shocking surprise is Paliho Kapurkova. I have messages from mainly eastern part of Slovakia that many disappointed people are attracted by this “Funny Political Party” and want to show politicians “middle finger.”
However, Paliho Kapurkova seems to be a nice marketing product and I would not be surprised at all if there will be soon Paliho Kapurkova Vodka, Paliho Kapurkova Rum, or many other cheap consumer goods with Paliho name and face.
